Priya Mehta
Wholesaler•Round 7 of 20You bridge the Retailer and Distributor. You see only the Retailer's orders — not real consumer demand.
Inventory on Hand
14units
✓ Within healthy range
Holding cost: $0.50/unit/round
Backlog
0
✓ No backlog
Penalty: $1.00/unit/round
Incoming Shipment
8
Arrives this round
2-period shipping delay
Orders Received
11
From downstream this round
Must fill or add to backlog
Cost This Round
$7.00
Holding + backlog costs
Lower = better performance
Cumulative Cost
$52.50
Total across 7 rounds
Your primary score — minimize this
Supply Chain Pipeline
2-period shipping delayWhy the delay matters: There is a 2-period lag between placing an order and receiving the shipment. Ordering too aggressively now will flood your inventory in 2 rounds — a key driver of the Bullwhip Effect.
Place Your Order
Round 7On Hand
14units
Backlog
0units
Incoming
8units
Orders In
11units
You ordered 14 units when demand signals suggested 11 would have been sufficient. Your current inventory of 14 units means you are holding more stock than needed, incurring $7.00 in holding costs this round. Over-ordering in response to a temporary demand spike is a classic early-stage Bullwhip trigger — your upstream Distributor will now receive an inflated signal.
🔗 Bullwhip Effect Connection
Your inflated order is now an amplified signal for your upstream supplier. In the Bullwhip Effect, each tier adds its own safety buffer — a +3 unit over-order at your level becomes +6 units at the Distributor and +12 at the Factory. This is exactly the variance amplification the simulation is designed to show.
Tip for next round
Try using an order-up-to policy: set a target inventory level (e.g. 12 units) and order only what is needed to reach it, accounting for incoming shipments.
Round History
7 rounds completed| Round | Demand | You Ordered | Inventory | Backlog | Cost | Cumulative | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 | $6.00 | $6.00 | Good |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0 | $7.00 | $13.00 | Good |
| 3 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 0 | $7.00 | $20.00 | Caution |
| 4 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 0 | $7.00 | $27.00 | Over-reaction |
| 5 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 0 | $7.00 | $34.00 | Good |
| 6 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 0 | $6.00 | $40.00 | Good |
| 7Latest | 11 | 14 | 14 | 0 | $7.00 | $47.00 | Caution |